Harri Roblin

Euro 2024 has kicked off, and early performances are already being used to predict who will win the trophy. Some supporters have become more optimistic after watching their team play. Alternatively, teams like England have looked poor and offer little hope for their fanbase. It is ultimately a guessing game, and the form of teams will change over the tournament.

But fear not, international football fans, I have used Football Manager 2024 to simulate Euro 2024 50 times to predict how successful each team will be. Football Manager is an in-depth and accurate football simulation game that often has implications for real football. Famously, Wayne Rooney was quoted saying, “I must say, Football Manager has been a very useful tool in our player scouting and recruitment process” while he was managing DC United. Other managers like Jose Mourinho have also discussed Football Manager as a helpful tool.

I placed the official groups and squads into the Football Manager database, and these are the results.

Winner

The simulation provided good news for Didier Deschamps and the France squad. They won the competition the most with 17 wins. This would be the first time they lifted the Euros trophy since 2000, and only the fourth men’s team in history to be the World Cup and Euros holders simultaneously. England has some hope in Germany, with them winning in 11 of the simulations. This would be the first Euros win in their history and would disprove early doubters in the tournament. The next most likely to win is Germany, who won 7 of the simulations. This would be the first home Euros win in 40 years and the fourth team ever to achieve this feat. Italy won the tournament in the simulation 3 times, and if this were to come to fruition, they would be the first back-to-back Euros champions since Spain in 2008 and 2012. The most surprising winner was Austria. They managed to be victorious 3 times over the 50 simulations. Their group, which consists of Poland, Netherlands, and France, is very challenging and opens up an easier route in the knockouts if they can progress. Players like Arnautovic and Baumgartner make Austria a real dark horse.

Runner-Ups

England struggled to shake off their Euro 2020 final defeat in the simulation, coming runner-up 10 times. Italy could not replicate their 2020 win in the final on 8 occasions, but it would be unexpected if this Italy side even reached that late in the competition. Several surprises reached the final, including Slovenia, Slovakia and Hungary. None of them could come out of the final with a win. The simulation shows that anyone could reach the final with a favourable draw or completing an upset. The best example of this was Greece’s victory in Euro 2004, which was only the third major tournament they had qualified for in their history.

Golden Boot

The Golden Boot is always tightly contested with so many talents at the Euros. Cristiano Ronaldo took home the mantle in Euro 2020 with 5 goals but has started the current tournament slowly, with no goals in his opening two games. Football Manager predicts Harry Kane will win in this competition, firing the most goals in 13 of the simulations. This is a likely outcome if he can continue his form, after he netted 36 Bundesliga goals this season. The creativity of Bellingham, Foden and Saka should help him achieve this. Mbappe was the top scorer the second-most at 7 times, and he has a similarly stacked creative force behind him. The broken nose he picked up against Austria will not help, especially with the missed game against the Netherlands, but the French need him fit and firing if they are going to take home the trophy. All other players were far behind these two in the simulation, but possible others for the award include Mitrovic, Lukaku and Morata.

Top Assister

The simulation was most undecided about the top assister, with 35 different winners. The Swiss player Steven Zuber won it at the last tournament. Griezmann, playing the role behind the striker, had the most assists 5 times in the simulation. This is not surprising given France’s firepower, with Mbappe, Thuram, and Dembele having a combined 45 league goals this season. The next highest was Ousmane Dembélé, with 3, for reasons similar to Griezmann. The French attack is the best in the world and it showed in the simulation. Young players in contention for the award included Xavi Simons, Pedri and Musiala. These are examples of excellent progressive passers. It is vital to have a functioning team with a clinical striker to win this award.

Player of the Tournament

Player of the Tournament has been awarded to a player of the winning team in three out of the last four tournaments, so this is important to consider. It should, therefore, come as little surprise that Mbappe won 10 of these awards over the simulations, the most out of anybody. This is still an award that he hasn’t won at a major international tournament. Kane won the second most, which can be explained by his elite goal scoring, shown in the top goal scorer statistics. Bernardo Silva was joint second as well, reminiscent of Luka Modric’s win in the 2018 World Cup; a player that helps the team tick but might not get many goal contributions. Portugal is a team with a lot of talent but relatively low expectations from the media, partly because Roberto Martinez has not shown he can create a successful international team at previous major tournaments with Belgium.

Young Player of the Tournament

Finally, the Young Player of the Tournament was the award the simulation was most certain over. Bukayo Saka won it a whopping 22 times. He is a mainstay in Arteta’s Arsenal team and had a very successful Euro 2020, which was only clouded by his missed penalty in the final. Pedri won the award the second-most on 7 occasions and will play a pivotal role in Spain’s midfield. He has had various injury problems over the last season, so Spain will hope to keep him fit. His counterpart, Lamine Yamal, could become the youngest goal scorer in Euros history at 16 years of age. The third most likely to win the award was Musiala, and there seems like no better time for him to do it than in front of a home crowd. He has had a quick start to the tournament with 2 goals, so he will be the early front-runner.